West Valley Real Estate Climate Update

As of January 2026, the real estate market in Surprise and Sun City West is transitioning into a more balanced, buyer-friendly environment compared to previous years. What's not to love? The West Valley, particularly around Surprise and Sun City, continues to experience increased demand driven by out of state buyers. The market is definitely cooling down from the frenzy of 2020-2022 - With steady, price growth and increased inventory.

If you can handle the close proximity to Luke Air Force Base and the lack of nightlife - Surprise, AZ is truly a remarkable place to live. Sleepy small town feels are to be expected.

What to Watch For (January 2026)

Home Prices: The median list price in Surprise is approximately $455,000 - $463,000, with some reports indicating slight year-over-year decreases in specific neighborhoods or, conversely, moderate 3-5% appreciation in others, suggesting a plateau rather than a crash.
Inventory & Competition: Active listings are rising, giving buyers more negotiating power and reducing bidding wars. However, in-demand areas, such as homes with RV garages or golf course views, remain competitive.
Days on Market: Properties in Surprise are selling in approximately 50 days.
New Construction: The area remains a hub for new builds (Asante, Sterling Grove, and more), which are helping meet demand and often offer incentives.

Sun City West & Sun City Grand Trends (Jan 2026)

Market Position: As 55+ communities, these areas are experiencing strong winter demand (January–March) from returning snowbirds, but are seeing a shift to a more balanced market.
Home Values & Prices: Average home values in Sun City West are around $378,313. Sun City Grand's market is "somewhat competitive" with a median sale price around $442,500 as of late January 2026.
Renovations: Due to the age of the housing stock in Sun City, homes that are fully renovated with modern, open-concept designs are in high demand and selling for a premium.
Inventory: While inventory is increasing in the general area, it remains moderate to low for highly desirable, fully updated, or golf-course homes in these retirement communities.

Things to Consider

Mortgage Rates: Rates have stabilized in the mid-6% range through late 2025 and early 2026, providing more predictable, though not low, financing options.
Buyer Leverage: Buyers are finding more choices and increased seller concessions, such as price reductions or, in the case of new builds, rate buydowns.
Retiree Influx: Continued, strong in-migration from California, Illinois, and the Midwest is sustaining demand for 55+ communities.

Summary for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers: You have more options and negotiating power in Jan 2026 compared to 2025, but should act quickly on updated, well-priced, or amenity-rich homes.
Sellers: Realistic pricing is crucial. While demand is strong, buyers are looking for move-in-ready, renovated homes.